AI will affect more than half of all U.S. jobs, analysis finds

Artificial intelligence will dramatically change the nature of work, but stop short of replacing most employees, according to a recent analysis.

Over the next three years, AI will “reshape” between 50% and 55% of U.S. jobs, Boston Consulting Group researchers estimated. 

“What people do in these jobs will be different, even if the job is still there,” BCG managing director and senior partner Matthew Kropp told CBS News. 

At the same time, many jobs will be lost. BCG projects that 10% to 15% of U.S. jobs could be replaced by AI over the next five years. 

“There’s almost a knee-jerk reaction — we’ll cut jobs and have layoffs. It’s indiscriminate, and that’s harmful for society because we need people to have jobs, but also harmful for companies themselves,” he said. “Yes, some will go away, but many jobs you’ll be re-skilling, getting people to work in a different way, and you have to expend effort to do that.”

Better for society — and business

As a result, Kropp urges business leaders to focus on how AI can augment workers’ capabilities rather than replace them. 

“We should focus on re-skilling, and making sure people doing it are moving to other areas in which jobs will be fine,” Kropp added. 

Tapping government labor data, Boston Consulting Group examined tasks associated with 1,500 jobs to assess which jobs are most suited to augmentation or replacement by AI. 

“In some cases, the result will be that the demand for a job will go up as the cost of the job goes down,” Kropp said. “Software engineering is the poster child for this. There is a massive backlog of software engineering tasks that enterprises have. There is a huge amount of software that isn’t built because it’s too expensive.”

By contrast, many call center employee jobs are expected to be eliminated because AI can do the work without increasing demand for their services.

“When AI reduces the cost of handling routine inquiries, the number of interactions does not expand proportionally. In this context, productivity gains are more likely to reduce the number of representatives required,” BCG said in its analysls. 

AI-proof work?

In other cases, jobs will remain largely unchanged. For example, occupations that require a physical presence or interpersonal skills, such as plumbers or therapists, are unlikely to feel much impact from AI, Kropp said. 

As with previous cycles of technological innovation, economists also expect AI to spawn new kinds of jobs, but Kropp said that for now it remains unclear what those could entail. 

“When social media came out, did anyone ever anticipate that social media influencer would be a job?” he said.