<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve already entered an El Ni\u00f1o phase, defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as a period when we see the temperature in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean get 0.5 \u00b0C hotter than usual, plus associated changes in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n
And this could be a big deal for global temperatures. El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t actually add energy into the climate system or warm up the entire globe on a long-term scale. It\u2019s essentially just taking heat that\u2019s been stored in the oceans and releasing it into the atmosphere.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
But climate change has pushed a lot of heat into storage in the atmosphere and oceans\u2014so combining the effects of this year-to-year variation with that long-term trend could have brutal results.<\/p>\n
This El Ni\u00f1o is expected to be an especially notable one. Some forecasts predict that the event could peak at over 3.5 \u00b0C above the average, potentially making it the strongest on record. It also came on quite quickly, representing \u201cone of the fastest onsets in the observational record,\u201d writes climate scientist Zeke Hausfather in an analysis for Carbon Brief<\/em>.<\/p>\n And while this El Ni\u00f1o is already starting to have an effect on temperatures, it\u2019s still ramping up. El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s effect on global temperatures tends to lag development of the ocean pattern by several months, and the effects will likely be more significant next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n In some recent El Ni\u00f1o periods, record-breaking temperatures came during the second calendar year of the event, Hausfather points out in his analysis. The most recent El Ni\u00f1o developed in 2023 and ran into 2024, and 2024 is the reigning hottest year on record. There\u2019s some uncertainty in trying to predict how the rest of this El Ni\u00f1o will play out, but so far, it is set to be a doozy.<\/p>\n Given how brutal these summer heat waves have been, there\u2019s a pretty high likelihood that much of the world could see even higher temperatures next year. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,\u201d United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres said in a video statement in June.<\/p>\n It\u2019s time to start preparing for it, and individuals can take some actions in the near term: If you\u2019ve been putting it off, I\u2019d buy that air conditioner, install solar and a backup battery, or upgrade the insulation in your home.\u00a0<\/p>\n In the longer term, though, temperatures will keep climbing because we\u2019re still burning fossil fuels and driving climate change. As Guterres said in his statement, \u201cThe only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis: ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.\u201d<\/p>\n This article is from The Spark, <\/em>MIT Technology Review\u2019s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, <\/em>sign up here<\/em>.\u00a0<\/em>