{"id":12862,"date":"2026-06-06T13:52:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T13:52:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news678.top\/?p=12862"},"modified":"2026-06-06T13:52:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T13:52:35","slug":"prediction-markets-offer-the-lure-of-fast-money-young-men-say-they-like-their-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news678.top\/?p=12862","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets offer the lure of fast money. Young men say they like their odds."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Earlier this year, Thomas Christian Owens decided to try his hand at prediction market trading for the first time. He created a Kalshi account in January. Three months and a $500 deposit later, he started betting.<\/p>\n
“It was a little bit of a birthday gift to myself to throw some money in there and just have some fun,” the 29-year-old manufacturing engineer told CBS News.<\/p>\n
Owens wasn’t expecting to make a killing. He told CBS News that he wanted a little extra money in his pocket to support himself and some of his family members. He had some early successes, but just over a month after he started trading, the Oklahoma City resident found himself in the red.<\/p>\n
Young men like Owens say they are drawn to prediction markets<\/span> in search of thrills, fast money and in some cases, financial security.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Close to 40% of young men between 18 and 34 use prediction markets, according to an April survey from Navigator Research, a public opinion research organization. On Kalshi, one of the leading prediction markets in the U.S., roughly 3 million of the platform’s 4 million active users are male. Six in 10 of the platform’s total users are between the ages of 18 and 34.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Prediction markets have recently drawn scrutiny for alleged insider trading \u2014 with men at the center of several high-profile cases. That includes a Google employee<\/span> who was accused of allegedly making more than $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on confidential company information.\u00a0 A U.S. special forces soldier was arrested<\/span>\u00a0after allegedly betting on the removal from office<\/span> of former Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro before news of the U.S. raid was made public. Former Rep. George Santos of New York is also under scrutiny<\/span> for alleged insider trading on Kalshi.<\/p>\n
Experts say it’s not surprising that men are the primary customers of prediction markets, given their propensity for risk.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“Young men tend to express more confidence than women when it comes to financial decisions and taking risks,” said Michael Liersch, a behavioral finance expert and chief planning officer at investment adviser Edelman Financial Engines. “That has to do with a strong belief about being right.”\u00a0<\/p>\n
The thrill of prediction markets<\/h2>\n
Prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of prospective events. To trade on the platforms, users typically place wagers on “yes” and “no” questions called event contracts, which are priced between $0 and $1. A successful wager results in a $1 payout per contract, while an incorrect prediction loses money.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Users can trade on anything from whether the U.S. government will confirm the existence of aliens to which men’s team will win this year’s World Cup. Owens, a basketball fan, mostly trades on sports-related events, including bets on his hometown NBA team, the Oklahoma City Thunder.<\/p>\n\n
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Oklahoma City resident Thomas Christian Owens started trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi for the first time this year.<\/span><\/p>\n
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Provided by Thomas Christian Owens<\/p>\n
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One of his early basketball “combo” bets, which lets users bundle multiple event contracts into a single trade, netted him $456 from a $50 wager \u2014 a more than an 800% return. On another combo bet, he accurately predicted the outcome of three pro basketball games, turning $196 into nearly $1,700.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Another popular wager for prediction market users is so-called “mention markets,” <\/strong>which allow users to put money on specific words or phrases that politicians, celebrities and other people will use during events.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That’s how Steven Zhang, a student at the University of California, Los Angeles, first heard about Polymarket. The 20-year-old was studying in the library with a friend in 2024 when he came across a social media ad inviting people to bet on what President Trump would say during a presidential debate. Zhang had seen the ad a few times before. This time, he and his friends decided they wanted some skin in the game.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“I remember we put $20 into Polymarket, in a crypto wallet, and then we made some bets, and we lost it all,” he said.<\/p>\n\n
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Twenty-year-old Steven Zhang trades mostly on Kalshi mention markets, which allow users to bet on whether someone will say a specific word or phrase during an event.<\/span><\/p>\n
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Provided by Steven Zhang<\/p>\n
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Zhang now trades on Kalshi, betting on highly uncertain outcomes such as what TV announcers will say during NBA games and the U.S.-Iran conflict. “I’m starting really small. I think I have like $150 in my account,” he said. “I have the amount of money that I’m comfortable losing.”<\/p>\n
CBS News reached out to Kalshi with questions about its male customer base but did not receive a response prior to publication.<\/p>\n
For Zhang, the thrill of prediction markets is putting your money where your mouth is.<\/p>\n
“Knowing that you could be right or wrong, I think, is part of the game,” he said.<\/p>\n
Experts say that part of why men seek out prediction markets can boil down to a simple biological differentiation. Men are more likely to consider speculative assets and are less afraid to lose money than their female counterparts.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“They have maybe less of what economists call an endowment effect, which is when they have a certain amount, they don’t care [if they] lose it all as readily as maybe women do,” David Bieri, an associate professor at Virginia Tech, told CBS News.<\/p>\n
When men strike it lucky on prediction markets, they walk away with more than just money: they earn bragging rights, Bieri said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“There is social status from being seen as successful in these high-prestige markets,” he told CBS News. “Which young man does not want to be the ‘Wolf of Wall Street’?”<\/p>\n
A losing game?<\/h2>\n
When Owens opened a Kalshi account, he said he hoped any winnings would supplement his income and enable him to offer financial support to his family.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“I’m not supporting anybody as a dependent right now, but I have a few family members that are really down on their finances at the moment, so trying to help them out, too,” he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Beyond making extra money, men may also turn to prediction markets in search of financial security. In a recent survey, Northwestern Mutual found that 75% of men feel financially behind and think speculative investments, including prediction markets, can help them catch up. That’s compared to 69% of women.<\/p>\n
“When people feel behind, sometimes risky choices can look like a shortcut,” John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual, told CBS News in an email, adding that headlines about rising prices and possible Social Security cuts<\/span> can add to the pressure.<\/p>\n
But the reality for most users differs from the expectations that brought them to the site. After a string of losses, Owens’ account balance recently dropped to $1,700 \u2014 below the $2,500 he had deposited. Out of caution, he is now keeping his prediction market bets to under $100, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“I had almost $4,600 at one point but squandered that, for sure,” Owens wrote in a text message.<\/p>\n
A handful of Kalshi users have made hundreds of millions of dollars. But that’s highly unlikely for the vast majority of users. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, more than 67% of profits on Polymarket went to 0.1% of accounts. \u00a0<\/p>\n
A Polymarket spokesperson didn’t address a series of questions posed by CBS News for this story, instead responding with a statement saying: “Polymarket is open to eligible adults 18 and older, and we continue to build on our mission to share human-informed knowledge with the world through open, capital-backed markets.”<\/p>\n
The average user prediction market has the odds stacked against them, according to Jordan Bender, managing director of gaming equity research at the financial firm Citizens.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Research from Citizens found that the median return on investment for a prediction market user was -8%, meaning they would lose $8 for every $100 spent.<\/p>\n
“People shouldn’t expect to walk into betting of any type and walk away a winner,” Bender said.<\/p>\n\n
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